Armenia's Defiance at Moscow Summit Highlights Shifting Alliances in Post-Soviet Space

The Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) summit in Moscow, chaired by Russian President Vladimir Putin, is set to address the strained relationship with Armenia, a key member that has effectively frozen its participation in the Russia-dominated military bloc since February 2024. Armenia's boycott follows its significant losses in the war against Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh, with Yerevan citing a lack of meaningful support from the CSTO. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov acknowledged Armenia's de facto non-participation, stating that future developments depend on the summit's discussions. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has previously expressed that Armenia's interest in the CSTO has diminished.

The CSTO's core principle, which envisages mutual aid, was not upheld during the 2020 war when neither Russia nor other member states—Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan—deployed troops to assist Armenia. This inaction, despite Moscow maintaining two military bases in Armenia, has fueled Yerevan's discontent. Notably, Azerbaijan, which withdrew from the CSTO in 1999, utilized advanced weaponry, including Russian-procured arms and Turkish and Israeli drones, to achieve its military objectives.

Pashinyan's increasingly anti-Kremlin stance since coming to power in 2018, coupled with Armenia's pursuit of European Union membership, has created friction with Moscow. Experts suggest that moves to strip Armenia of its voting rights are a punitive measure, with other CSTO nations likely to remain passive due to their dependence on Russia or a desire to avoid confrontation. This situation reflects a broader paradigm shift in the former Soviet Union, as nations reassess their allegiances.

Armenia's assertive stance is seen as strategically timed, occurring while Russia is heavily engaged in the war in Ukraine and facing Western sanctions and economic pressures. Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 further exposed the CSTO's perceived ineffectiveness, as no member states provided military backing to Moscow. While the CSTO did demonstrate force in January 2022 by deploying peacekeepers to Kazakhstan amid protests, Russia's struggles in Ukraine have reportedly eroded its image of military might among member states.

Furthermore, the article highlights that CSTO member states often receive outdated Russian weaponry disguised as discounted and advanced. In parallel, Central Asian and South Caucasus nations are exploring alternative military cooperation formats, such as the Turkiye-led Organization of Turkic States. Joint military drills involving nations like Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan, and Turkiye are becoming more frequent, indicating a diversification of security partnerships.

Moscow has also struggled to retain influence with Uzbekistan, a key economic player in Central Asia, which has oscillated in its CSTO membership and now prefers an observer role. Despite Russia's verbal dissatisfaction with such signs of disloyalty, it appears limited in its ability to enforce compliance. Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev, while maintaining outward loyalty to Moscow through participation in events like the May 9 Victory Parade and joint drills, also engages with Western dignitaries, signaling a complex balancing act.

The primary substantive agenda item for the Moscow summit is expected to be the security situation in Afghanistan. Russian officials have expressed concerns about the presence of numerous armed groups, particularly ISIL in Khorasan Province (ISKP), which is actively recruiting from Central Asia. The group's reach was underscored by its claimed responsibility for the 2024 Moscow concert hall attack. Consequently, CSTO states have intensified security measures along the Afghan-Tajik border, underscoring the shared concern over regional stability.