Ukraine Peace Talks Launch in UAE Amid Skepticism Over Security Guarantees

High-stakes discussions involving the United States, Russia, and Ukraine, marking the first such meetings since February, commenced in Abu Dhabi on Tuesday, with European participation. The two-day talks are anticipated to center on security guarantees, alongside efforts for de-escalation, humanitarian measures, and the potential for a broader settlement. The American delegation is expected to be led by US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, who also serves as President Donald Trump's son-in-law. Officials indicated that meetings would take place with representatives from Ukraine, the EU, NATO, Germany, France, Britain, and Italy prior to the main discussions. A US official stated on Monday, "We expect to cover security guarantees, and then also, with regard to long-term security architecture between Russia and Europe, how to reduce future conflicts." Pictured attending a meeting in Abu Dhabi were Rustem Umerov, Secretary of the National Security and Defence Council of Ukraine, Kyrylo Budanov, chief of staff to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, and David Arakhamia, head of the Ukrainian parliament's majority faction. Despite an official expressing optimism, "I do believe that now we're in a position where there is a shot at trying to make, you know, serious progress to end the war," the likelihood of a breakthrough remains uncertain. Both Moscow and Kyiv continue to target each other's energy infrastructure, while Russia is demanding significant territorial concessions from Ukraine. Conversely, Kyiv is insisting on robust guarantees against future Russian aggression and has refused to cede territory. The US official added, "Our proposal is to bring the Europeans into the discussion after this trilateral and to try and run on parallel tracks so that they can both help solve the other." Mr. Kushner expressed hope that the discussions would identify common ground, noting in an X post on Monday, "This is an extremely complex and complicated conflict. We understand that difficult decisions lie ahead." EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas had previously expressed little optimism regarding Russia's willingness to negotiate an end to the war. These talks follow a significant defeat for Mr. Trump's Republican Party in the US midterm elections. Mr. Trump, who took office nearly two years ago with a promise to swiftly end the war in Ukraine, stated in a Sunday interview with 60 Minutes that he believed an agreement was imminent, saying, "I believe we're very close to making a deal. I think we're going have it done, and I think it's going to happen and they're going end up with a little bit different shaped Ukraine." Daniel Fried, a former US assistant secretary of state for Europe, commented that the White House appeared to be offering concessions to Russia at the expense of Ukraine and potentially Europe, without clear evidence of Moscow's genuine interest in negotiations beyond its own terms. "Jared Kushner seems to be now putting even more offers on the table, using language favoured by the Kremlin," Mr. Fried stated. "So, having failed to move negotiations by putting pressure on Ukraine and offering economic concessions to Russia, the Americans are now offering even more to Russia – and I see no evidence that any of this is going to work." He further suggested that Mr. Trump was proceeding from a position of weakness, with little indication that his strategy would benefit American interests. Matthew Boyse, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute's Centre on Europe and Eurasia, posited that Russian President Vladimir Putin felt he held the advantage in negotiations and had minimal incentive to compromise. He suggested that Moscow viewed Mr. Trump as politically weakened post-midterms and increasingly motivated to secure a diplomatic victory by ending the war. "Following the midterms, Moscow sees a much weaker President Trump who is now even more keen to be seen as a winner, such as by delivering an end to the war," Mr. Boyse explained. "Putin thinks he has the cards." Mr. Boyse recalled that previous negotiation rounds had yielded humanitarian outcomes, such as prisoner exchanges and the return of Ukrainian children, but had failed to address the core disagreements hindering a resolution. "If the history of these meetings since 2022 is a guide, you can be forgiven for being sceptical," he remarked. Mr. Boyse also raised doubts about Mr. Trump's willingness to apply economic pressure on Moscow, noting that the US leader had potentially undermined his own leverage through energy deals and efforts to revive Russian oil and gas trade after authorizing further sanctions.