Sheikh Hasina Seeks Passport for Return to Bangladesh Amidst Legal Threats and Political Maneuvering

Ousted leader Sheikh Hasina, currently in exile in India since the conclusion of the 2024 uprising that ended her extensive tenure, is seeking a new passport to facilitate her return to Bangladesh next month. This move comes more than two years after she fled to India following a mass uprising that led to her removal from power. The 79-year-old former prime minister was sentenced to death in absentia last year for alleged crimes against humanity, stemming from a severe crackdown on student-led protests in 2024, a charge she vehemently denies. She faces the significant risk of execution upon her return, as the current government, which succeeded hers, remains a strong political adversary. Dhaka has already rejected her passport application and has challenged Hasina to pursue extradition from India if her intention to return is genuine. State Minister for Foreign Affairs Humaiun Kobir stated to Al Jazeera, “Bangladesh does not give passports to terrorists who kill thousands of people and flee. It will work under the current extradition arrangements with India to pursue and get the terrorist Hasina handed over.” On Tuesday, Bangladeshi prosecutor Md Aminul Islam, who secured the death sentence for Hasina at the Dhaka-based International Crimes Tribunal, reiterated that she would face execution if she returned. “Sheikh Hasina has no option but to face the execution of the verdict,” Islam informed reporters. This raises the question of Hasina’s motivations for approaching the Bangladesh High Commission in New Delhi for a new passport and national identity card, given that her existing documents have been revoked, and what her strategic plan entails.

Hasina governed Bangladesh with an authoritarian grip for nearly two decades and continues to command support from a segment of the population, while many others desire her execution. Her potential return could escalate political tensions as Prime Minister Tarique Rahman’s administration endeavors to re-establish stability two years after the 2024 uprising, which resulted in over 1,400 fatalities, according to United Nations figures. Analysts, however, are divided on whether Hasina genuinely intends to face legal proceedings or is leveraging the prospect of return to revitalize her political standing from her self-imposed exile in India. Zillur Rahman, president of the Centre for Governance Studies, a Dhaka-based think tank, suggests that Hasina’s passport request is less about an immediate return plan and more about maintaining political relevance and control over her Awami League party. “I think she knows what her fate is. But what she wants is to keep Awami League leaders and activists politically engaged,” he commented, referencing Hasina’s party, founded by her father, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman. “As far as I understand, she does not want to hand over the party’s leadership to anyone else under any circumstances. I think that is a major problem for her and for the party. Otherwise, the party might have tried to find a way to survive.” Jon F Danilowicz, a retired United States diplomat and former deputy chief of mission at the US embassy in Dhaka, was more definitive. “There is zero chance that Hasina will return to Bangladesh in December. In my view, this has all been a bluff intended to rally her supporters and shift the narrative regarding her increasing irrelevance at home,” he told Al Jazeera. Faiz Sobhan, senior research director at the Bangladesh Enterprise Institute research centre, also views Hasina’s announcement as an attempt to boost the morale of her party, which is currently banned, with many of its leaders imprisoned or in exile. “The announcement keeps Sheikh Hasina politically relevant and lets her gauge the mood at home,” he stated. “An actual return seems inconceivable, since it would mean facing the gallows or spending the rest of her life behind bars.” Despite these expert doubts, Hasina’s announcement has reportedly energized some Awami League leaders and supporters. An anonymous Awami League organizing secretary, speaking from exile in India, expressed confidence: “Our leader will return. They have tried to stop her before, but they could not stop her. They are conspiring against her again, but she will overcome these conspiracies and return.” However, when questioned about the specifics of her return plan and the party’s preparations, many Awami League members indicated a lack of clarity. “But she has announced that she will return, and I believe she will come back in December, no matter what,” said Arman Rahman, a Dhaka-based Awami League activist and former leader of its student wing.

Hasina’s political future is also intertwined with India’s strategic considerations. New Delhi, a long-standing ally, has provided her refuge since her departure from Dhaka in August 2024. However, her continued presence has become a diplomatic issue between the two nations, with Dhaka repeatedly requesting her extradition under a bilateral treaty. India’s foreign ministry indicated in April that it intended to “engage constructively with the new government and further strengthen bilateral ties.” Both countries have signaled a desire to mend strained relations. Sreeradha Datta, a professor of international affairs at O P Jindal Global University, noted that India views Hasina as a longtime friend, while simultaneously seeking to manage her presence separately from diplomatic engagements with Dhaka. “Sheikh Hasina is a very good friend of India. [New] Delhi looks at her as a friend whom it will always support. That is our official position,” she affirmed. Former US diplomat Danilowicz suggests that New Delhi is increasingly cognizant of the diplomatic repercussions of hosting Hasina but is unlikely to facilitate her return. “While there may be some in India who still believe that Hasina and her party provide them leverage, by now the [Narendra] Modi government must understand the damage that her continued presence in New Delhi is doing to efforts to normalise relations with Bangladesh,” he observed. “I am certain the Modi government would love to see the Hasina problem go away, including by having her find a third country to reside.” Rahman of the Centre for Governance Studies offers an alternative perspective, suggesting India finds it difficult to disengage from Hasina while also facing diplomatic complexities. “I think India is finding it difficult to digest her presence, but at the same time, it cannot let her go either,” he explained. “If India does not take responsibility for protecting her now, its other allies in South Asia and elsewhere may lose trust in New Delhi. They may feel that India does not ultimately protect those who have stood by it.” Rahman anticipates that India will continue to offer Hasina refuge but is unlikely to assist in her political resurgence in Bangladesh. “I don’t think India will abandon her. But at the same time, I don’t think it will provide her with all forms of political protection, particularly by helping her return to Bangladesh and reestablish herself here,” he concluded. Datta does not foresee an immediate improvement in Bangladesh-India relations.

The possibility of a political arrangement between Hasina and the governing Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), now led by Prime Minister Rahman (son of Hasina’s late rival Khaleda Zia), is also being discussed. Rahman himself lived in exile in London during Hasina’s rule. However, analysts consider such a deal improbable, with Sobhan of the Bangladesh Enterprise Institute calling it a “non-starter.” “The BNP has little to gain and much to lose from any accommodation with the Awami League. Its base spent 16-plus years being jailed, harassed and sidelined [by Hasina], and any hint of a deal would be seen as a betrayal,” he told Al Jazeera. On Monday, BNP acting secretary general Ruhul Kabir Rizvi dismissed the prospect of Hasina’s return, stating, “She is deluding herself if she thinks she can return, reimpose fascism and reclaim her throne.” Sobhan added that the BNP government has limited options outside the International Crimes Tribunal’s verdict, making a broad settlement for national stability difficult, and reconciliation without accountability or apology even more so. He emphasized that extradition remains the “only formal route” for Dhaka, implying a forced return rather than a voluntary one.