Netanyahu's Grip Weakens as Opposition Advances in Israeli Politics

In the days following Israel's national election, marked by a bitter campaign and personal attacks, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has shifted his tone to speak of national unity. This comes as the opposition bloc, which surpassed his ruling coalition in October's election, gains momentum. On Saturday, Israeli President Isaac Herzog appointed former Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot to form a government capable of commanding the Knesset. In response, Netanyahu posted a video on social media, warning of a potential civil war if a government were formed with the support of Arab parties he accused of seeking to "eliminate the State of Israel." He reiterated this warning in another video, urging the leaders of the more successful bloc to unite under his leadership in a single government, which would also include ultra-Orthodox parties and far-right allies Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir. These ultra-Orthodox parties are reportedly in talks with Eisenkot. Daniel Levy, a former Israeli government adviser, described the ongoing negotiations as a strategic game of "leverage, one-upmanship, psyops, spin, and counter-spin." As the new Knesset is sworn in, speculation centers on the role of the ultra-Orthodox (haredim) parties. Traditionally, they have supported Netanyahu in exchange for exemptions for their students from military service, despite a Supreme Court ruling. However, United Torah Judaism (UTJ), one of these parties, has refused to endorse Netanyahu's government formation bid and may be preparing to support Eisenkot. This potential shift could overcome objections from Avigdor Lieberman, a key opposition figure, who faces the choice of partnering with Arab parties or enduring Netanyahu's continued rule, potentially leading to further elections. Mitchell Barak, a former aide to Netanyahu and Israeli pollster, stated, "It's political strategy, that's all. But he's negotiating from a weakened position. With the UTJ, Eisenkot’s got 67 seats," referring to the number needed for a majority in the 120-seat Knesset. Barak added that Netanyahu is doing everything possible to strengthen his bloc, a move seen as critical for his personal future. Netanyahu faces significant challenges, including multiple corruption charges for which he is currently on trial, and potential loss of influence if Eisenkot succeeds him. He has already petitioned President Herzog for leniency. Furthermore, questions linger about his and his government's responsibility for the perceived failures preceding the October 7 Hamas-led attack and subsequent events in Gaza and beyond. The new Knesset includes many members directly impacted by October 7, such as bereaved family members, reservists, and advocates for hostages, as well as Eisenkot himself, who lost family members. This composition is expected to heighten tensions regarding accountability for the events of October 7. Attention will likely focus on Netanyahu, whose alleged miscalculations, ignored warnings, and perceived prolongation of the war or sacrifice of hostages for political gain are under scrutiny. A key objective for the opposition on the first day of parliamentary business is the installation of Matan Kahana, a member of Eisenkot's Yashar party, who advocates for a state inquiry into Netanyahu and the government's failures. Israeli political analyst Nimrod Flaschenberg noted, "Having so many people connected so directly to October 7 is going to increase the temperature." He observed that the situation has become highly politicized, with gains for one side representing losses for the other. "Netanyahu can try to influence that but for the first time in a long time, he seems a bit lost," Flaschenberg commented. Ultimately, Netanyahu's political and personal future hinges on an opposition that now numerically outmatches him and a Knesset eager to scrutinize past mistakes. Levy concluded, "There’s no appetite on the other side to go in with Netanyahu for a unity government," adding that such a scenario would only occur if Netanyahu could engineer a security emergency, referencing reports of his calls to the Trump administration urging renewed action against Iran.