Israel's Political Crossroads: Can Gadi Eisenkot Unite a Divided Knesset to Oust Netanyahu?

The machinery of Israeli politics is in motion, but progress remains elusive. In the recent elections, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu lost the parliamentary majority that sustained him for the past four years. However, his primary challenger, Gadi Eisenkot, faces a formidable challenge in unseating Israel's longest-serving leader, despite being tasked with forming the next government. Eisenkot's bloc holds a theoretical majority of 67 out of 120 seats in the Knesset. The complexity lies in the ideological diversity of these six parties, ranging from right-wing to Arab factions. Eisenkot, a newcomer to frontline politics, must navigate this landscape to unite these disparate parties in support of his premiership and governance.

For years, Netanyahu successfully managed the loyalty of parties within his bloc, adeptly handling disagreements to maintain coalition stability. Eisenkot, lacking this experience, must now lead his coalition partners toward the common objective of establishing a government to succeed Netanyahu.

How Governments Are Typically Formed:

In most parliamentary democracies, including Israel, a party usually secures a clear majority in parliament, typically at least 61 out of 120 seats in the Knesset. The leader of this party then assumes the role of prime minister. Following the 2022 election, Netanyahu secured 64 seats, later augmented by four more when an additional party joined his coalition, granting him a strong 68-seat majority that lasted its full term—a first since 1988. Currently, Netanyahu commands the support of only 46 lawmakers, falling significantly short of the majority required to govern. Eisenkot has 67 seats backing him, but the challenge is uniting these parties, as not all have committed to working together.

The Possibility of a Minority Government:

The recent election has resulted in a complex deadlock, with neither side possessing a clear path to government formation. Netanyahu's pre-election bloc of 53 seats diminished to 46 after the United Torah Judaism party, a long-time Netanyahu ally, declined to endorse him. The opposition secured 67 seats, but 19 of these are held by the two Arab parties, the Joint List and Raam, making them crucial to any effort to replace Netanyahu. However, a significant portion of Israeli society, including some Netanyahu opponents, does not view the Arab parties as legitimate partners. Despite this, the Arab parties could provide external support to a minority government, offering a parliamentary safety net.

A minority government, possessing fewer than the 61 seats needed for a stable coalition, can remain in power by securing the backing of Knesset members not part of the cabinet. Israeli law permits the installation of a government with a simple majority, provided the opposition is divided and abstains. Removing a government is more difficult, requiring a constructive majority of over half the lawmakers to support an alternative government.

Gadi Eisenkot's proposal is to form a "national emergency government," a minority government comprising the four Jewish opposition parties—Yashar, Together (led by former prime ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid), Avigdor Liberman's Yisrael Beiteinu, and the left-wing Democrats (led by Yair Golan)—which collectively hold 48 seats. The Arab parties would not be coalition members but would offer parliamentary support in exchange for concessions. Israel has had minority governments previously, but not immediately following an election. Yitzhak Rabin's second government became a minority government in 1993 after the ultra-Orthodox Shas party exited his coalition, surviving for two more years with external support from Arab parties.

Another potential factor is the support of United Torah Judaism (UTJ). Although a traditional Netanyahu ally, the party's refusal to recommend him during post-election consultations opens the possibility of abstention or even support for an Eisenkot-led minority government, expanding his potential support base beyond the Arab parties. However, this would likely involve significant concessions from Eisenkot.

Obstacles and Potential Kingmakers:

Eisenkot's primary challenge is Avigdor Liberman, who opposes any government reliant on Arab parties, deeming a minority government unstable and beneficial to Netanyahu. Liberman advocates for a 61-seat coalition including the ultra-Orthodox parties but excluding the Arab parties, anticipating defections from Netanyahu's Likud party. Liberman has dropped his veto on the ultra-Orthodox parties, but his plan conflicts with the opposition's commitment to ending the military draft exemption for ultra-Orthodox men, a demand the ultra-Orthodox parties aim to preserve. Any agreement would necessitate major ideological compromise and appears distant, especially as Shas remains loyal to Netanyahu, while UTJ shows some openness.

Liberman's strategy could jeopardize Eisenkot's minority government plan, though they are coordinating their next steps. Even before government formation, the opposition intends to leverage its parliamentary majority to seize control of the Knesset by replacing Netanyahu's appointed speaker and other parliamentary officials, and then advancing legislation.

The Prospect of a Unity Government:

Netanyahu is actively campaigning against Jewish-Arab political cooperation, advocating for a "national unity government" on his terms, which include him retaining the premiership and his entire bloc. Unity governments traditionally involve Israel's two largest parties after a political deadlock. Notable examples include the power-sharing arrangements between Shimon Peres and Yitzhak Shamir after the 1984 and 1988 elections, and Netanyahu's own leadership of two such governments, including the emergency government with Benny Gantz in 2020, which was intended to feature a premiership rotation that Netanyahu circumvented.

Following the October 7, 2023 attack, Gantz and Eisenkot joined a war cabinet, resigning after eight months due to dissatisfaction with Netanyahu's handling of the Gaza war and strategy. Eisenkot has dismissed Netanyahu's unity government proposals as a "pathetic spin," suggesting Netanyahu should break with his extremist partners and join an Eisenkot-led government if he desires cooperation. Some analysts speculate Netanyahu might eventually distance himself from National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, but not from Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and the ultra-Orthodox parties. However, Netanyahu has given no indication of such a concession, and the opposition views his unity appeals as a tactic to thwart a potential government replacement.

Netanyahu's Remaining Influence:

Netanyahu currently serves as caretaker prime minister until a new government is sworn in. Eisenkot has 28 days, with a possible 14-day extension, to negotiate cabinet positions, budgets, and policies with his bloc. If he fails, the mandate can pass to another candidate for 28 days. Should Netanyahu receive the mandate, he would likely attempt to persuade opposition lawmakers to join his bloc. Eisenkot, Bennett, Liberman, and Golan have all stated they will not join him. With his bloc eight seats short, Netanyahu would require eight defectors, a significant hurdle. However, time is on his side. If Netanyahu fails, the mandate returns to the Knesset for another 14 days to nominate a candidate. Failure to form a government would lead to another election, with Netanyahu continuing as caretaker prime minister during the interim period.