US Iran Policy Divided: Rubio Favors Sanctions, Vance Seeks Deal Amidst Trump's Shifting Stance

United States Secretary of State Marco Rubio indicated that Washington's economic pressure on Iran is sufficiently effective to obviate the need for a resumption of large-scale military operations. These statements represent the latest in a series of evolving messages from President Donald Trump’s administration regarding the conflict with Iran, and follow a significant midterm election defeat for the Republican Party, which President Trump attributed partly to public opposition to the war.

Rubio made these remarks following a meeting with G7 foreign ministers in Paris, stating that he informed allies that "the economic campaign [against Iran] is so devastating that right now there is no need for major combat operations." He elaborated, "We don’t need to conduct military strikes if we’re achieving the same objective through economic means and economic pressure. That’s not stalemate." Rubio also urged G7 allies to assist in "protecting shipping" around the Strait of Hormuz, where US forces would remain. His comments align with President Trump's statement that further strikes against Iran were "quite unlikely." Trump, via his Truth Social platform, suggested that US Gulf allies prefer the continuation of the "status quo," referring to the US blockade of Iranian ports, and noted "positive momentum" towards conflict resolution, while affirming the US remains "locked and loaded."

In contrast, Vice President JD Vance, who has been critical of the war and blamed the Republican Party's midterm loss on it, reportedly favors a deal with Iran, a possibility Trump currently deems unlikely, according to an informed source cited by Reuters.

Negotiations to end the US-Iran conflict have stalled for months. Iran continues to target vessels it claims violate transit conditions in the Strait of Hormuz, while the US intensifies sanctions and maintains a blockade of Iranian ports, with plans to extend this to land-based supply routes. Iran previously proposed a seven-day plan to reopen the Strait and restart talks, a timeline it has since suggested could be shortened to two days. Tehran's demands include lifting US sanctions, reducing the US military presence in the region, reinstating oil waivers, and releasing frozen Iranian funds.

President Trump appears to be navigating a middle path, intensifying the pressure campaign without returning to full-scale military action, according to Axios officials. This strategy is reportedly supported by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, CIA Director John Ratcliffe, and Jared Kushner. However, regional US allies like Pakistan, Iraq, and Turkiye are concerned that a prolonged US pressure campaign could negatively impact their business interests, according to one official.

Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, argues that a long-term US policy of intensive sanctions and blockade would prolong an "unstable status quo" and eventually lead to further military confrontation. Parsi suggested a potential "walk-away" option for Trump: quietly relaxing sanctions and the blockade while maintaining them "on paper," allowing them to "imperceptibly wither away." This approach, Parsi explained, would enable the US to claim restrictions are still in place while allowing trade and investment in Iran to resume, creating a new equilibrium.

Analysts suggest the midterm election results have influenced Trump's strategy, with Negar Mortazavi of the Center for International Policy stating the Republican defeat "dramatically raised the political cost of more escalation." She believes Democrats could leverage their increased power to pressure Trump to end the war, though a diplomatic breakthrough is not guaranteed. Both Trump and Vance have acknowledged the Iran war's role in the Republican loss, with Trump citing voter concern over rising petrol prices. A Reuters/Ipsos poll indicated that 71 percent of Americans favor congressional legislation to halt the Iran war.

Iranian officials have increased their rhetoric, with Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi asserting that the war will only end through "using the language of respect," not military means or increased sanctions. He urged the US to meet Iran's demands, stating Trump "should have realized much earlier that he has not achieved, and will not achieve, any of his goals in the war with Iran." Iran's top security chief, Mohsen Rezaei, posted on social media that the US government had been "wrecked" by the war and should "surrender" to Iran's demands. Al Jazeera's Mohamed Vall noted Iran's increased confidence, emphasizing that Tehran expects its conditions to be met for any resolution.

Diplomatic efforts are ongoing, with Qatar's Ministry of Foreign Affairs reporting "tireless" mediation efforts and positive reactions from both sides. President Trump also spoke of "momentum towards the end of this conflict," noting that "Iran is talking to us, and they’re talking very politely." Rubio, however, described Iran's current demands as "totally unrealistic" but stated the US remains "open to diplomacy." Iranian officials have expressed skepticism about mediation reports, insisting on US acceptance of their demands. Rezaei denied ongoing negotiations and threatened retaliation against US bases if attacked, also ruling out concessions on enriched nuclear material. He accused the US of "manufacturing FAKE NEWS about imaginary talks."