US Midterm Elections: Key Races Remain Undecided as Vote Counting Continues

More than a week after American voters cast their ballots in the midterm elections, the final outcomes for the House of Representatives and Senate remain uncertain, with over a dozen congressional races yet to be called. Democrats have secured 54 seats in the Senate for the upcoming Congress, with potential to gain one or two more as votes are tallied in Alaska and Mississippi. In the House, Democrats have achieved their largest elected majority since 2008, holding 255 seats in the 435-member chamber, and could further expand this lead as remaining contests are decided.

Mississippi Senate Race: Too Close to Call

In Mississippi, Democrat Scott Colom holds a narrow lead of approximately 2,600 votes over Republican incumbent Cindy Hyde-Smith in the race for the US Senate. Key deadlines this week include the receipt of mail-in absentee ballots by Tuesday and the submission of certified election results by counties, including provisional ballots, to the state by Friday. The exact number of ballots yet to be counted is unknown. Mississippi lacks a centralized vote reporting system, and few counties publish results online, necessitating direct communication with each of the state's 82 counties by The Associated Press and other analysts for vote count updates. The state is scheduled to certify its results on December 3. Mississippi Secretary of State Michael Watson reported on Monday that approximately 14,200 provisional ballots had been processed, with about 80 percent accepted, and around 2,700 mail-in absentee ballots had not yet been returned. Mississippi does not have automatic recounts, nor does it permit candidates to request them; recounts are only held under court order. The Associated Press may declare a winner in a race eligible for a recount if the lead is deemed too substantial to be altered by a recount or legal challenge.

Alaska Senate Race: Ongoing Count and Ranked-Choice Voting Potential

Democrat Mary Peltola is leading Republican Senator Dan Sullivan by roughly 2,500 votes in Alaska's US Senate race, with an estimated 76 percent of the vote counted as of Tuesday. Absentee ballots are still being counted, and final absentee ballots mailed from outside the US are accepted until November 18. Ranked-choice voting could also influence the timeline, as Peltola is currently just over one percentage point shy of the majority needed to win outright. If neither candidate achieves a majority, the race will proceed to ranked-choice tabulation on November 18. The state's target date for certifying election results is November 25. Automatic recounts in Alaska are only triggered by a tie vote, though candidates can request a recount within five days of certification.

A Dozen House Races Still Undecided

In most of the US House races that remain uncalled, the margin between the leading candidates was less than one percentage point as of late Tuesday afternoon. North Carolina has the most undecided races, with four, all featuring challenges to Republican incumbents. Recounts are not automatic in North Carolina but can be requested by candidates if the margin is one percent or less. Such requests must be received by noon Eastern Time on November 17. The state is set to certify its results on November 24. In California's 23rd District, the outcome of one House race could impact the chamber's balance of power; another uncalled race involves two Democrats. Mail-in ballots must be received by Tuesday, and county results must be certified by December 3, with state certification on December 11. In South Carolina's 2nd District, a recount is underway between Republican incumbent Joe Wilson and Democrat Zyon Khalifa, with Wilson leading by approximately 3,000 votes after 99 percent of votes were counted. Minnesota's 1st District race was also undecided late Tuesday, with about 300 votes separating the top two candidates and an estimated 99 percent of votes counted. Recounts are not automatic in Minnesota but can be publicly funded if the margin is less than 0.25 percent. In Tennessee's 4th District, approximately 300 votes separated Democrat Victoria Broderick and Republican incumbent Scott DesJarlais as of Tuesday. Recounts in Tennessee are only part of legal challenges.

Two Governorships Remain Undecided

In Kansas, Democratic state Senator Cindy Holscher leads state Republican Senate President Ty Masterson by less than one percentage point in the gubernatorial race. A close-race audit, involving a hand count of selected ballots, was triggered on November 4 and must be completed before counties certify their results by November 16. In Alaska's gubernatorial race, only about 76 percent of votes were estimated counted by Tuesday. Democratic candidate Jonathan Kreiss‑Tomkins leads Bernadette Wilson by about 45,000 votes. If no candidate receives over 50 percent, the race will proceed to ranked-choice tabulation.