Iran Seeks to End 'No War, No Peace' Stalemate with US Amid Strait of Hormuz Tensions

Iran's Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf has stated that Tehran is determined to move beyond the current state of "no war and no peace" with the United States, as talks remain stalled and the conflict continues. Speaking to Al Jazeera, Ghalibaf indicated that Iran maintains control over maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, having disrupted shipping by targeting tankers on "unauthorised" routes. He expressed Iran's openness to a deal with the US that would include a ceasefire and the reopening of the strait, emphasizing that the US has yet to respond to Iran's terms.

"The ball is now in the American court," Ghalibaf remarked. Experts suggest that US President Donald Trump has opted to intensify economic pressure rather than restart an unpopular war or make concessions. This strategy involves tightened sanctions, a continued blockade on Iranian ports, and an operation aimed at cutting off advanced weapons and technology transport routes used by Iran.

While full-scale fighting is currently on hold, a formal peace deal remains elusive, leading to a fragile stalemate that experts believe may not endure. Ali Vaez, deputy programme director for the Middle East and North Africa at the International Crisis Group, described the situation as an "inherently unstable equilibrium," where Washington views it as a sustainable stalemate, while Tehran perceives it as a "slow-motion strangulation." Vaez noted, "Both sides are banking on the other’s pain threshold being lower than their own," calling it a "dangerous wager."

Iran has outlined seven conditions for agreeing to a ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, after which peace talks would resume with a Qatari mediator. These conditions, which Iran awaits a US response on, include the lifting of the US naval blockade on Iranian ports, sanctions relief, the release of frozen Iranian funds, an end to hostilities on all fronts, and a formal declaration of the war's end. Ghalibaf stated these conditions were part of a memorandum of understanding (MoU) agreed upon with the US in Islamabad in June and must be implemented before Iran re-enters negotiations.

Analysts suggest that Iran's push for a deal is driven by the economic pressure exerted by the blockade and sanctions. Prolonged pressure could make it difficult for Iranian leaders to accept terms that might be perceived domestically as a surrender. "Iran wants relief from the siege, but after paying such a heavy price … its leaders cannot afford a settlement that looks like surrender," Vaez explained. "The more Washington demands capitulation, the more elusive a deal becomes."

Despite the challenges, there are indications of diplomatic progress. Qatar has reported working "tirelessly" to resolve the crisis, noting positive statements from both sides regarding diplomacy. President Trump also mentioned "momentum towards the end of this conflict" after meeting with Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani. However, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has deemed Iran's demands "unacceptable."

Gerd Nonneman, a professor at Georgetown University in Qatar, commented that the cost of maintaining pressure might limit Washington's options. He suggested that while the US might see the status quo as preferable to concessions, it's not a sustainable strategy due to significant economic and military costs. Iran's primary leverage remains the Strait of Hormuz; by controlling vessel passage and routes, Tehran can increase the stalemate's cost for Washington and its Gulf partners. Ghalibaf asserted that the waterway "will never return" to its pre-war status.

This leverage was evident when shipping slowed significantly after tanker attacks. On Saturday, November 7, only five commodity vessels crossed the strait, with none recorded on Sunday, November 8, according to Kpler data, a sharp decrease from 31 crossings the previous weekend. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) reported a "massive explosion" that halted two supertankers on an unauthorised route, carrying over four million barrels of oil. Analysts believe these intermittent attacks allow Iran to destabilize shipping and maintain its leverage over Washington.

Vaez highlighted the paradox: "The more effective America’s pressure campaign becomes, the greater Iran’s incentive to break the impasse by force." Reports indicate divisions within Trump's advisors regarding the next steps, with some advocating for continued economic pressure and others for a negotiated deal. The US midterm elections and the potential for Democrats to control spending in the new Congress could also influence Trump's decisions, potentially limiting military operations or the administration's window for major actions.

Vidal noted that potential shortages of ballistic missile interceptors might compel Washington to limit renewed fighting. Iran has also signaled potential retaliation against civilian infrastructure and US military bases, which could draw Gulf countries further into the conflict. Vaez concluded, "The tragedy is that both sides know how to start another round of hostilities, but neither knows how to control or end it."