Leaked Rosstat Data Reveals Russian War Casualties May Have Reached 450,000

Leaked records from Rosstat, Russia’s state statistics agency, indicate that at least 450,000 Russians, primarily soldiers, died in the Ukraine war up to August of this year. The data, obtained by hacking groups the Belarusian Cyber Partisans and Ukraine’s Silent Crow, also reveals that over 4,000 foreign citizens from nations including Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Nepal, Colombia, and Nigeria died fighting for Russia.

While Rosstat confirmed cyberattacks occurred between October 29 and November 1, the agency denied that protected databases were compromised. However, analysts and media outlets believe the data is authentic. Janis Kluge of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs noted that while data manipulation is a theoretical possibility, it is highly unlikely. The Financial Times (FT) suggests that once late paperwork is processed, the total toll up to August could reach approximately 550,000.

The leaked files list roughly 410,000 war-related deaths and 42,000 fighting-age men confirmed dead in court due to missing bodies. The FT identified an additional 12,000 likely military deaths, totaling at least 450,000. Significant casualties occurred in Avdiivka and Pokrovsk, where about 120,000 died, and in Bakhmut, where 48,000 perished.

The demographics of the casualties show a trend toward older men from poorer, minority regions. The average age of the deceased rose from 34 in the first year to 40 in 2025. Regions such as Zabaykalsky Krai, home to the Buryats, and Bashkortostan, home to Bashkirs and Volga Tatars, recorded high death tolls. Specifically, Zabaykalsky Krai saw about 12,300 deaths, while Bashkortostan recorded 15,800.

Regarding foreign fighters, the FT identified 4,141 probable deaths, while Bloomberg News counted 11,335 using a broader definition. Deaths of Nepalis peaked in 2023 and 2024, while Colombians, Kenyans, and Nigerians saw increases from late 2025. The highest tolls were from Uzbekistan (807) and Tajikistan (598). Amnesty International reported that many foreigners from Brazil, Colombia, Sri Lanka, and South Africa were deceived by misleading job ads and forced into the army. For example, a South African man seeking a driving job in Poland was instead forced into military service in Moscow. In Kenya, where over 1,000 citizens were reportedly recruited, agencies promised high wages and bonuses that often went unfulfilled. Moscow denies any coercion.

The Institute for the Study of War suggests these figures may understate true losses and indicates that Russian casualties are now outpacing recruitment. Janis Kluge emphasized that while the economic impact may be limited, the political significance is profound, stating that Russia cannot be seen as winning if it is losing its population at such a rate.